Monday, March 18, 2024

Have we lost all that was achieved on Peace Talks so far?

“We will take democracy to every corner ...," CEC Rajiv Kumar


New Delhi 


There is something common about Success, Failure and Political Chaos. 

They all are contagious.  Once you hit upon a 'political chaos', there are chances these will be exploited and once you are on the track to 'exploit' the situation, be rest assured  the remaining days would be consumed in ensuring correction and preservation.


In 2023, the state of Manipur was in a mess. In 2024, we are talking about general elections but in another corner of northeast - closer home 'eastern Nagaland', there are threats of poll boycott. Veteran Naga leader S C Jamir is a concerned man and he has again underlined the importance of an early Solution to the vexed Naga political  issue.


Well, he has said so numerous times. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to himself set the ball rolling for resolving some of the issues in Nagaland and also Manipur.







It needs to be pointed out that the issues and struggles of common people either in Manipur or in Nagaland are never religious or 'communal' in that sense of the terms.


Political problems are not resolved by monetary measures also. Then, what holds the future?



'Nagaland Page'



Have they not even started diagnosing the problem of Manipur ? The Kukis are unhappy because Meitei pressure tactics seem to work more with the Government of India. But various armed groups of Meiteis are only adding fuel to the fire from time to time.


There have been four reported incidents since the commencement of the conflict in Manipur wherein soldiers whilst on leave, on duty or their relatives have been targeted for nefarious interests by "inimical elements", as they put it. It is certainly a matter of deep concern.

  

The Arambai Tenggol is in news on some of these. It's a Meitei activist body - also calling itself a 'revivalist organisation' that aims to reestablish the prominence of a native Sanamahi religion among the Meiteis.

In Nagaland, there were a lot of hopes from the Peace Talks that commenced in 1997. A boy born that year -- would be 27 in circa 2024; and yet nothing seems to have been achieved after years of parleys.


Talk to some stakeholders either in Delhi or in Dimapur and Kohima regions; one gets a typical refrain -- "Have we lost all that we have achieved on Peace Talks so far?"


And for the last few years, if the Government of India is not showing much urgency to deal with the very process of negotiations on Naga talks; why is it so?


 If the central government under a 'decisive' Prime Minister Modi lacks vision for Naga people -- either in Nagaland and outside Nagaland - it is pretty bad news. 


The critics may get a chance to attack a Prime Minister -- who may win his third term with an enhanced mandate. The Government of India's approach to the Naga issue and the state of Nagaland is now being widely perceived to be bereft of vision and ill-planned.


In 2023, for the Manipur mess; the Modi government already was tagged for pushing some allegedly ill-planned ideas. 



Let us keep hoping for a Solution to the Naga problem too. But demands are probably too high and there is a need to scale down the 'targets' a bit. Every agreement or a Solution formula may not be 'acceptable' 100 percent.

So some phrases like 'honourable and acceptable' could be tweaked to make things more practical.


Pragmatism is not a vice and need not be discarded. 


Time will make New Delhi realise its follies. Time will also make other stakeholders understand that things could have been handled better. But unfortunately when the time for reconciliation will come; the worthy who will rule in the Ministry of Home Affairs and those in Dimapur, Kohima and Imphal may not be left with a respectable audience.


Personally, even Jamir has in the past lauded Prime Minister Modi's ability to decide things and to display real guts. Modi has enough political maturity to understand that there is a lot of difference between doing something with a vision and plan or merely 'doing something'.


“We will take democracy to every corner of the country,” India's Chief Election Commissioner, Rajiv Kumar, said last week as he announced the six weeks long voting dates in the world's largest democracy.


There is a bit of irony in that declaration. 


ends   

 



2014-24 :: A Decade that was ::::: When 'Clean India' and 'Beti Bachao' campaigns actually further endeared Narendra Modi to millions

 Of course, Narendra Modi's macho and pro-Hindutva image is always highlighted. But there were certain government schemes and official campaigns under his government, when things were truly UNIVERSAL -- Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas agenda !!  


Amitabh and Clean India 



Cleanliness drive was very close to the heart of Mahatma Gandhi; therefore Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Swacch Bharat Abhiyan on Oct 2, 2014. The significance of the initiative was such that it was to be regulated by all ministries of the government. Modi also had exhorted the people to devote 100 hours every year towards the cause of cleanliness and at the same time emphasised the need to build toilets. 


Multiple strategies were involved in the entire campaign. A crowd-sourcing contest was held to design a logo for the mission. Public figures such as Mridula Sinha, Sachin Tendulkar, Shashi Tharoor (Congress leader), Anil Ambani and Priyanka Chopra among others were initially invited by the PM to carry the mission forward. 


In retrospect, one can say in the first year between Oct 2, 2014 and Oct 2, 2015; the annual target of constructing six million toilets was achieved. Another target was set. Plans were drawn to construct 12 crore toilets in rural India by October 2019. A Swachh Bharat Kosh was also set up.  






In Jan 2024, President Droupadi Murmu conferred Swachh Survekshan awards 2023 at Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi hosted by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA). 


Thirteen awardees received felicitations under categories of Clean Cities, Cleanest Cantonment, SafaiMitra Suraksha, Ganga Towns and Best Performing State were given away. 
This year the cleanest city award showcased joint winners. 


Port city Surat bagged the top honours, alongside Indore, who had conquered the top spot alone for 6 consecutive years. 


In the category of cities with a population of less than 1 lakh, Sasvad, Patan and Lonavala secured the top three spots. Mhow Cantonment Board in Madhya Pradesh was adjudged the Cleanest Cantonment Board. Varanasi and Prayagraj won the top two awards amongst the Cleanest Ganga Towns. Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh won the top three awards for Best Performing State.  

Chandigarh walked away with the award for the Best Safaimitra Surakshit Sheher. 110 awards were bestowed during the ceremony.



Clean Indore : A glimpse


Flashback:


Swacch Bharat Abhiyan has salutary impact on health parameters of Indore


story filed on Feb 27, 2018 ---- 



The Swacch Bharat Abhiyan in the commercial capital of Madhya Pradesh has helped the citizens in more ways than one. First, it has made the city clean and galvanized all sections of society in a unity of purpose to keep their homes, offices, shopping centres and bazars clean; but more importantly it has had a salutary effect on the health of the people.


According to officials of Indore Municipal Corporation, which piloted the cleanliness drive with an unprecedented zeal and professional approach in last three year, the positive impact of the Swacch Mission has resulted in decline in "respiratory and other diseases by about 50 per cent".



"We all spoke about Acchey Din (Good Days) in 2014. People still ridicule about the slogan in social network. But come to Indore and you find what's Acchey Din. The city is cleaner and healthier. Even our Sabzi Mandis offer a different view," 
says Indore Municipal Corporation 'safaimitra' Dinesh Kumar.



The observation should not be dismissed as mere rhetoric as the city has come up a long way from being placed 150th in a cleanliness ranking of India’s cities in 2014 to Number 1 in 2017. In between, the city had leaped to the 25th position in 2016. 


"It's doable and we did it," Asad Warsi of Eco Pro Environmental Services, consultant to the Indore Municipal Corporation, said. 


Indore Municipal Corporation officials say the "swift progress" was possible due corporation’s efforts and people's involvement to improve garbage collection, and make the city bin-free and open-defecation free (ODF). 

In terms of health paradigm, studies, according to municipal corporation, show- while there were 160 cases of dengue in 2014, it came down to 129 in 2016 and dropped to 'zero' in 2017.






Launched on Jan 22, 2015, from Panipat in Haryana, the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao Yojana was a game-changer with immense long term impact.

The scheme aimed at ending the abhorrent practice of female foeticide. 


Actress Madhuri Dixit  was roped in. She said quite aptly: "The first lesson that a child learns is from the mother. If the mother is educated, the upbringing of the child will be better". For his part, Prime Minister Modi had said - "Today we have to move from women development to women-led development". 




There were several other missions and schemes taken up on mission mode. 


--- 'Digital India' was one such. 

--- Skill India was another   


'Digital India' aims to provide the much needed thrust to the pillars of growth areas, namely Broadband Highways, Universal Access to Mobile Connectivity, Public Internet Access Programme, e-Governance: Reforming Government through Technology, e-Kranti – Electronic Delivery of Services, Information for All.  


PM applauded street vendors for being face of UPI, India's digital revolution.  


Out of the total 457 projects taken up under the Namami Gange Programme at an estimated cost of Rs 38,438.05 crore till December 31, 2023; as many as 280 projects have been completed and made operational, Parliament was told.  


Namami Gange, founded on five pivotal pillars including Nirmal Ganga (unpolluted river), Aviral Ganga (unrestricted flow), Jan Ganga (People’s Participation), Gyan Ganga (knowledge and research-based interventions), and Arth Ganga (fostering economic growth and community engagement), has garnered international recognition as one of the world's foremost river rejuvenation programs.












































































The story of unmaking of Congress .... and why win for Narendra Modi is the most plausible outcome ?

One consensus among political analysts is that a defeat for the Congress party is the most plausible outcome of the ensuing 2024 general elections in India. 

The grand old party today risks becoming an electoral irrelevance. Its political narrative has boomeranged. The Congress is more often dubbed as being anti-Hindu --- a political facet that suits Narendra Modi.





The BJP likes to present India as a Hindu country which for long paid a big price by pushing a politics of Muslim appeasement. In this debate Modi is seen as a 'saviour' of the Hindu tradition and culture. It is he who delivered the Ram temple at Ayodhya. The Congress stayed away from the grand 'religious' event calling it a Modi and RSS show. 


The Congress leaders and even US diplomats give the impression, India was never partitioned and hence Hindus should not have any grudge. The reality is different. 



India watcher and French scholar Christophe Jaffrelot aptly says, the Indian opposition has to "recreate the appetite" for good old secular spirit in India. 


Today if Modi is able to beat a 10-year-old incumbency, it has also to do with his personal charm. Modi is not only a macho Hindu leader who delivered Ram temple, he is also seen as a tough Prime Minister who ordered bombing some parts of Pakistan to destroy terror camps in 2019. Lately, the BJP leaders do not forget to tell voters that Modi could prevail upon Russian President Vladimir Putin and prevent a nuke war, something US President Joe Biden could not.  


It is ironical that even in the last 10 years since 2014, the opposition parties could not create a personna even to take on Modi in Varanasi - not to talk of fighting him at the national level. To understand meticulously, one can say, the Congress and more its leader Rahul Gandhi want to win the polls 'by accident'. 

This was possible in 2004 --- when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was voted out. But its 2024 and Narendra Modi is around. 


Over the last decate, the opposition parties banked a lot on Congress to anchor a solid opposition unity and the Congress banked on their leader Rahul Gandhi. Everyone forgot, electorally, Rahul has failed utterly in the past - 2014 and 2019. He had even resigned as party president. The G-23 leaders rebelled, but no use. 


Everyone appears callous in the opposition camp today. Likes of Ghulam Nabi Azad are no longer in the Congress. 

So, many opposition leaders now say, -- we better prepare for 2029 when Modi may face the electorate for the fourth term.


There is yet another factor and a vital one. Rahul Gandhi is a very poor communicator even to his cadres and party colleagues...Often he talks philosophically, so much away from electoral jargons. In contrast, Narendra Modi's biggest asset is oratorical skill and ability to give necessary political spin to certain developments.




Blogger in Old Parliament Building  


The Congress is largely seen as a squabbling left-leaning and anti-Hindu outfit arranged around its first family. There is a  need to "re-establish" what the Congress stands for.  It is also confused. The party could not enforce a sense of accountability on Rahul Gandhi or even Sonia-Priyanka duo. 


Rahul continues to rule the show even as an aging Mallikarjun Kharge was made the party president.  In the last 10 years over 12 former chief ministers have quit Congress. Leaders like Himanta Biswa Sarma and Jyotiraditya Scindia are from Congress stock but now die-hard Modi admirers and BJP's key leaders both in administration and politicking.  


When it comes to playing pro-Hindu cards, the Congress party and Rahul Gandhi pursue all kinds of funny games -- and most of the strategies backfire.  

From time to time, he uses phrases like 'janayu dhari Brahmin' for himself. This means he is a Brahmin - high priest caste amongst Hindus.

But he forgets, being Brahmin or taking sacred threads - according to Hindu customs - is inherited from one's father. It is not an issue of making a political choice. In Rahul's case his father-side grandpa was Feroze -- a Parsi and from his mother's side - his roots go back to Italy. In other others, such statements in general sense backfire. 

Rahul Gandhi also does temple hopping. In 2019 he visited China and his party tried to link it to his being a Shiv Bhakti - no Hindu voter was carried away by such 'adjectives' from the likes of Randeep Surjewalla.

He also walked parts of his Bharat Jodo Yatra (a word that usually refers to a pilgrimage) in bare feet and often wearing a tilak, a red mark connoting Hindu piety. He has referred to the Bhagavad Gita, a Hindu text, in presenting the Yatra as a "tapasya" .

Voters in Hindi heartland states Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh were simply not bothered and his party was voted out in two states with a huge margin. 

Rahul also talks about India's secularism and stresses on religious inclusion. In contrast, Modi and BJP's games are clear -- they are for a new Bharat that will show respect to Hindus and 'do justice' to the Hindu sentiments feeling aggrieved for 800 years and more.  

 

During Bharat Jodo Yatra, Rahul also donned a turban to pay his respects at the Golden Temple in Amritsar, the spiritual centre of Sikhism. People may still remember anti-Sikh pogrom of 1984 when Sikhs were massacred in Delhi after his grand mom Indira Gandhi was assassinated. And more so because, Rahul's dad, late Rajiv Gandhi had said, "When a big tree falls, the earth shakes".  


These are legacy issues in negativity - but politically still talked about and sale-able.  





Rahul also has a poor sense of timing. And these contribute to establish himself as a non-serious politician. During Bharat Jodo Yatra 2, he was in Nagaland for two days but did not the NDPP-BJP regime at all. His Bharat Jodo Yatra-2 also coincided with Ram temple inauguration on Jan 22, 2024; and hence the cow-belt politics was left unguarded. And during his visit to Assam - on Jan 22 - he tried to enter a Shankardev Shrine and was disallowed !! 


In other words, the negative scores could easily outnumber the 'positives'. 

Thus Rahul cannot emerge as a real 'counterweight' to Modi’s and his BJP's message of Hindu pride punctuated with right dosage of developments, welfarism and strategies to woo women and farmers. 


Well analysts like Tushar Bhadra in Varanasi says, "The Congress tries multiple games and only end up doing some mistakes. After 2014, it has moved closer to Left ideologies and Rahul even was seen among students raising anti-India slogans in JNU in 2016. Secularism is dear to Hindus also but saving 'real secularism and pluralism' is totally different from being anti-Hindu. 

The Congress does not have the calibre in today's polity to offer effective 'secular answers' to real communal issues. Misguided strategies cannot win you battles, it can give favourable headlines in a peculiar out-of-touch from reality English media.





The Congress remains clueless when it comes to Pakistani personalities such as Hafeez Saeed !! Rahul's onetime Guru Digvjaya Singh addressed dreaded global terrorist Osama-bin-Laden as Osama-ji. 

The faceless Indian voters seldom forget such episodes and if at all they may forget; the BJP's social media spin doctors know how to bring them back in public debate in election season. 


In the ultimate, after nearly 20 years as a lawmaker, Rahul Gandhi still represents a puzzle. He is still a figure "ill-prepared" to be a leading neta in the heartless and ruthless world of Indian polity. Everyone feels, he is well cushioned by sycophants on one side and the protection of a mom's love on the other.


The Congress has not still announced whether Priyanka Gandhi will contest from Rae Bareli or not. This maybe the time again for the Congress to dare to think of something radical: come out of the dynasty. Its suicidal either way !!   




ends 



Election Commission removes Home Secretaries of six states, Mamata's Man Friday, Bengal top cop also shunted out

Election Commission Removes Home Secretaries Of 6 States, Bengal Top Cop

The Election Commission directed the transfer of Rajeev Kumar, Bengal's Director-General of Police DGP -- a well known Mamata Banerjee loyalist.


Vivek Sahay, who was Director-General and Commandant of the Home Guards, has been appointed the new West Bengal DGP.





The poll panel issued orders for the removal of six Home Secretaries - including the top bureaucrats from NDA-ruled Gujarat, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. 

In addition, Iqbal Singh Chahal, who is Commissioner of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, and other officials in municipalities across Maharashtra, was removed too.


All of this comes less than a month before the 2024 Lok Sabha poll; the ECI on Saturday said voting will begin on April 19 and run over seven phases till June 1.

This is, in fact, the first re-jig by the ECI since it announced polling dates, and it came after a meeting of Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar and his two associates, the newly-appointed Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu. The poll panel has underlined its commitment to a level playing field for all parties in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, as well as state by-polls over the next 100 days.


Sources said the personnel removed were found to be holding dual charge in the offices of the respective chief ministers of each state, and this could compromise, or be seen to be compromising, required neutrality, particularly in relation to law-and-order before, during and after polling.



For example, in the case of Uttar Pradesh, Sanjay Prasad - the Principal Secretary to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath - had been given additional charge of the Home Department in 2022.


West Bengal's ruling Trinamool has hit out at the removal of Mr Kumar, who is seen by the opposition as be close to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's party. 


In the past, the state government has also questioned the last-minute re-shuffle of senior officials so close to an election, arguing it hampers prep work.


Senior leader Kunal Ghosh accused the saffron party of "trying their best to grab organisations like the ECI..." to ensure its success when the state votes across five phases beginning April 26.


"The BJP is trying to help their state unit because they know, in the election, BJP will be defeated in most of Bengal's seats. The BJP may transfer a few officers but the public is with the Trinamool Congress and didi (as Ms Banerjee is referred to)," he said.


West Bengal has more often witnessed violence during polling season. In June, 2023, over a dozen people were killed across the state as voting for a panchayat election was underway.

The Trinamool accused the opposition of instigating violence and criticised central forces for their failure to protect voters, while the Congress claimed the state had let thugs loose on the people.


The re-shuffle, not an uncommon move by the Election Commission before major polls, also included the transfer of the Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand 

Home Secretaries, as well as senior officials attached to the offices of the Mizoram and Himachal Pradesh Chief Ministers.







BJP To Contest 17 Seats, JDU 16, Chirag Paswan's LJP Ram Vilas) - 5 in  Bihar


Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United will contest on 16 seats. Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party will contest on five seats, Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustan Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwaha's RLM gets one seat each. 








"....don't shout at me....You have got my decision as Chief Justice, we are not hearing you," CJI D Y Chandrachud tells senior counsel Nedumpara -- who was once punished for contempt of court.


As Chief Justice said, "Don't shout at me". 

On the defensive, Mathews Nedumpara responded, "No, no, I am very soft."

The Chief Justice went on, "This is not a Hyde Park corner meeting, you are in the court. You want to move an application, file an application. You have got my decision as Chief Justice, we are not hearing you. "

All these came to light during the hearing on Electoral Bonds. 


As Mr Nedumpara kept speaking, Justice BR Gavai intervened, "You are obstructing in the process of administration of justice!"


The lawyer still did not back down. As he kept speaking, the bench said, "That's all, we will not hear you till you follow the procedure prescribed." Mr Nedumpara said they will be filing an application and that they boarded a night flight to reach Delhi. "Be kind to us," he said. The bench, however, did not budge.

The court also refused to hear arguments by Senior Advocate Mukul Rohatgi and Supreme Court Bar Association president Adish Agarwalla, who wanted to intervene during the hearing.


The bench also reminded the lawyer of the contempt of court action he has faced in the past. In 2019, the Supreme Court held Mr Nedumpara guilty of contempt. 

He had then given an undertaking that he will never again "attempt to browbeat any Judge either of this Court or of the Bombay High Court". 


The court sentenced him to three months imprisonment "which is, however, suspended only if Shri Nedumpara continues in future to abide by the undertaking given to us today". He was also barred from practising before the Supreme Court for a year.



The Supreme Court today asked SBI to disclose all details, including the alphanumeric number and serial number, if any, of the bonds redeemed. 


It also asked the SBI chairman to submit an affidavit, stating that no info has been withheld. The Election Commission was asked to upload the data received from SBI.

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Namo 'achievements' in last 10 years -- India as Bharat on 'ascending' graph :::: Three Parliamentary polls ... and why BJP and Team Modi need to be 'careful' .... Vajpayee lost 2004, Indira Gandhi routed in 1977 and Rajiv voted out in 1989

Namo 'achievements' in last 10 years -- India as Bharat on 'ascending' graph  


On foreign policy front, Narendra Modi started on a very weak ground. He had no considerable foreign policy experience. In 2005, he was denied Visa by the United States and the European Union too had downgraded him and his state Gujarat for 2002 riots. But once in power, he dis not look behind. A fast learner that he is, Modi picked up the tricks of the game. He brought in new charms and tools. 

'Bear Hug' and selfies became buzz words.  


In an acknowledgement of India's rising global graph, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was given a singular honour by the leaders of the countries he visisted; and India was celebrated at multiple high-profile multilateral and regional fora.  

The BJP now in circa is ready to fight the election on a high-pedestal 'national' scale.


Modi’s role in elevating Bharat, that is India, as a global power – be that in international politics or in the recent its moon landing in August 2023 – is lauded as his personal achievements too. Of course India was the first country to successfully land a spacecraft near the lunar south pole. 




Namo and Kamala of US 



His swearing in 2014 had SAARC leaders including Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan lined up. In 2019, BIMSTEC leaders were invited, On Jan 26, 2018, as a special gesture, leaders of 10 ASEAN countries participated as Guests of Honour at the Republic Day Parade. This unique episode singularly underlined the Modi government's Act East Policy.  

Between 2014 and 2018 (first four years itself; the outgoing visits in Africa included countries such as - Algeria, Angola, Benin, Egypt, Ethiopia, Mali, Rawanda, Senegal and many more. 


The first ever African Development Bank meeting was hosted in Ahmedabad. 


Overall in the last decade, India's pro-active Diplomacy and its rising global stature was reflected in its pivotal role in shaping the global agenda of any array of cross-cutting issues such as terrorism, climate change, nuclear proliferation and black money. Amid uneven global economic growth, India proactively pushed for expanding global cooperation against the scourge of black money.  






Modi even hugged the Pope



Three Parliamentary polls ... and why BJP and Team Modi need to be 'careful' .... Vajpayee lost 2004, Indira Gandhi routed in 1977 and Rajiv voted out in 1989


Of the three polls that stunned Indians, the most favourite of Congress is the 2004 debacle suffered by Atal Bihari Vajpayee- L K Advani duo. This revived Congress and gave India a government headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.


This was also the beginning of an era with 'remote controlled' PMO ! 





 The 1977 elections saw real saving of Democracy after Emergency imposed by Indira Gandhi. She believed her son and his goonda elements and police highhandedness had tamed the opposition. The 'empress' was humbled.

Of course, Rajiv Gandhi was a poor victim. He was let down by self-virtuous courtiers like Mani Shankar Aiyar. That man has hardly changed, and his arrogance has only helped the BJP in later years.

 
Rajiv Gandhi, with a record 400-plus seats in the 1984 Lok Sabha, never hoped to sit in the opposition as he did in 1989. 





All these put together or separately should make the BJP realise that in democracy especially in India, the last ball counts more than anything else. Of course, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is himself the in-charge of his show.


If Rajiv had the likes of Mani Shankar Aiyar; Vajpayee was let down by Pramod Mahajan. Modi and Amit Shah know all these pages of history better than anyone else. 

On the other hand, the Congress party should be careful about Rahul's Sam uncle -- Sam Pitroda. The 'overseas' uncle had committed two blunders in 2019 -- first he questioned Indian Air Force Balakot strike and secondly, he almost justified anti-Sikh riot saying (rather infamously) -- "hua toh hua".  

Sam Pitroda, Indian Overseas Congress Chief, had questioned Indian Air Force actions on February 26, 2019 and said just because eight terrorists come and 'do something' --- "you don’t jump on entire nation (Pakistan)".

Pitroda had tried to justify the then UPA government's decision not to undertake any aerial strike against Pakistan after 26/11 Mumbai terror strike in 2008.


"Such people have no connect with India's security requirements...The pain that we have suffered in last three decades due to terrorism," Late Arun Jaitley had countered. 


"Agar Guru aisa ho aur unke vichar aisa ho, toh shishya kitna Nikamma niklega aaj yeh desh ko bhukatna par raha hae 

(If Guru is like that, the disciple can be only a worthless one and the country is suffering this situation today)," Jaitley had said. 









Over to Congress: Brand game of False Allegations

If desperation had caught up with Imran Khan, then Pakistan Prime Minister, after Balakot air strike – in India – a class of politicians who often ‘sympathised’ with him "shared" the Pakistani game of lie, falsehood and utter shamelessness at times.


If such sweeping remarks appear too harsh, one must scan through the tweets of Kapil Sibal and Digvijaya Singh. The former Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh – who once was a virtual guru of Rahul Gandhi – had called Pulwama terror attack – “an accident”.


Sibal, then was in Congress, for his part wanted to bank more on a section of foreign media and questioned the authenticity of Balakot strike and its impact. 


For his part, the Air Force chief Air chief Marshal BS Dhanoa said the aerial strike on February 26 (2019) achieved its target and the Pakistani retaliation itself was the ample proof about it. "We hit the target......If we had dropped bombs in the jungle, there would be no need for them (Pakistan) to respond”.



In fact, the then Congress president Rahul Gandhi added to his list of faux pas when he tweeted horrifying lines on the Ordinance factory at Amethi. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to Amethi said the factory was inaugurated by Rahul Gandhi in 2007 but it did not materialise due to UPA negligence.


Mr Gandhi wasted no time – and tweeted in hurry that he had inaugurated the factory in 2010 and that Mr Modi was only telling a lie. 

BJP leaders Smriti Irani and Kiren Rijiju released a photograph that showed that the function was held in 2007 - as mentioned by Prime Minister in his speech.


"Please take a closer look at the photograph, it shows 2007. When you really laid the foundation stone for Amethi and when you destroyed Amethi, please come clean," Smriti Irani it out at Rahul Gandhi in Hindi.


Kiren Rijiju, MoS Home went a step further.  "Rahul Gandhi ji is holding a responsible position. Why don't some sensible people in Congress party tell him that compulsive liar is a person who tells falsehoods out of habit, sometimes for no reason at all," Union Minister Mr Rijiju tweeted.


But more vital question is what does Congress and other opposition parties stand to benefit by questioning the authenticity of Air Force strike of February 27?

Have they changed?




Big Battle is at doorsteps..... knocking ...... 'Big Picture' stories are hidden in some states and some political factors


Elections are won, elections are lost.

But the age factor matters. The Congress has still not able to decide what it can do with the talent pool in the younger generation. Even this year, Milind Deora quit. 


In terms of BJP’s ‘shift’ towards Generation Next – it all actually started way back in 2013 under Rajnath Singh as party president himself – and the move had clear blessings of the RSS leadership. The underlining theme that guided the saffron party in 2013 appointment of office bearers, 2014 distribution of tickets and also ministry formation and allotment of tickets in 2019 – is – ‘kisi ek neta ki nahi chali’.


In 2023, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje made exit from respective state capitals.

“The single biggest takeaway is that no individual is important,” a source said.

A leader went further – saying in 2024, it is likes of Pawan Sawant (53)  or even the 33-year-old L S Tejaswi Surya – who will run the BJP. The new faces programme too has seemingly gone down well in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. 


In Uttar Pradesh – despite all criticism – the incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is not only a ‘younger’ face – he is precisely one year younger to Rahul Gandhi. A Sangh parivar functionary and close observer of things – says “Rajnath Singh started it in 2013 itself and this has been carried forward". 







Karnataka

 In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 25 seats out of 28 while the Congress won just 1. But apart from being in power in the state in 2024, the Congress has two regional heavyweights in Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar. How much difference they can make ?


Can Congress repeat 2023 assembly polls performance. The Congress made a strong comeback in the Assembly elections held in May 2023 to return to power in the state, winning 135 of 224 seats.


Of course,  the BJP is counting on the popularity of PM Narendra Modi, as well as the machinations of old warhorse and influential Lingayat leader B S Yediyurappa. BJP has an alliance partner in the JD(S) of H D Deve Gowda. This is to garner support amongst Vokkaligas.  




In Maharashtra: 


The BJP is banking on many factors. The “recognised” factions of Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde and NCP of Ajit Pawar are now with the BJP.

However, Uddhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar are in the other camp, the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition, including the Congress. Multiple factors and push and pull have made the scenario much complex. 

In 2019, the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena in alliance won 41 of the 48 seats (BJP 23 and Sena 18). The Congress-NCP alliance was reduced to just 5, with the Congress winning only one seat. A senior Congress leader Ashok Chava n has joined the BJP now. 


Haryana 

PM Narendra Modi intervened and replaced his friend Manohar Lal Khattar as the Chief Minister. The Jat factor bothers BJP though it has been in power in the state since 2014. The BJP has made an OBC the CM, and cut off ties with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party - JJP. Chautalas are Jats. 

Again Modi factor remains. The BJP won all the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2019 but the going will be more challenging this time. 


Amit Shah always says  the road to power in New Delhi (the central government) is via Uttar Pradesh. This template remains. The saffron party is banking a lot on Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The BJP won 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP in 2014 (73 for NDA with two for Apna Dal).

In 2019, it came down to 62 (64 for the NDA). 


Five years back, the Samajwadi Party, BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) had stitched up a meaningful alliance in 2019, helping them dent the BJP dominance.

In 2024, the RLD is with the NDA and Jayant Chaydhary's grand pa Chaudhary Charan Singh was given the Bharat Ratna. The SP is aligned with the Congress, which has not made up any lost ground in UP.

The BSP led by influential Dalit leader Mayawati is contesting alone. That apart, the inauguration of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya, plus gains for the Hindu side at the disputed Kashi Vishwanath Temple-Gyanvapi Masjid complex, will work as boosters for the BJP.


The Lotus party is ambitious to get 80 but may consider itself lucky and fairly good to score around 75.  These polls may be Do or Die battle for Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party. 






With Nitish Kumar-led JD(U)’s re-entry, the BJP-led NDA is back to its formidable combination in Bihar.

The NDA won 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 in Bihar. Along with Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas), this alliance brings together the upper castes, the non-Yadav OBCs, the EBCs and Dalit Dusadhs.


On the other side are the RJD, Congress and Left, with a largely Muslim-Yadav base, plus some EBC influence. However, young RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has been drawing crowds. He has decided to highlight job issue as an agenda.

But it is also true, Lalu Yadav is not in best of his elements due to age and other factors. 






The Congress has so far announced 25 guarantees, building up on similar promises which, it believes, helped it notch up wins in state polls in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana. 


These include 5 ‘Nyay’ guarantees for youth, women and farmers each, and 10 more announced lately.  Most of these were unveiled over the course of Rahul Gandhi’s Manipur-to-Mumbai Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.


To match these or otherwise, the BJP has 'Modi Ki Guarantee'. 

The ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ is described as a guarantee for the “development of youth”, “empowerment of women”, “welfare of farmers”, and “progress of the marginalised. Also in public debate and greater scrutiny would be Congress double standards vis-a-vis its commitment to Hindus. The Congress decision to stay away from Ayodhya's Ram temple consecration will be highlighted by BJP leaders. 

While Congress may try to bank on its spin on CAA and Electoral Bonds, its a matter of fact the CAA is a product of legacy of India's partition. And on Electoral Bonds, the Congress story is essentially grapes are sour. But what is the real explanation for it to finish No. 3 on the table behind Trinamool Congress.

Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge are trying to call it corruption; but some good amount went to Congress account too.  


For Congress and other opposition parties, the farmers’ issues vis-a-vis the protest on MSP will be a  poll topic. But on the other hand, the BJP leaders will have to work harder to convince voters on the significance of Agri and Labour reforms. 


The Prime Minister touched upon a few issues in his address to 'India Today' conclave and other poll rallies. And from the government side, emphasis given to tech developments and visits by central leaders and minsters to north east will strike chord with the people.   




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BJP has to ensure real-time electoral success in southern states:  While we try to analyse the Lotus party's electoral journey in southern states; it is also important to understand that the Congress too may find it difficult to retain its grip in states such as Kerala.  

For BJP's 303 tally in 2019, 25 of them came from Karnataka and Telangana added another four. So rest 100 are with the Congress and its allies. 

However, the BRS, YSRCP of Jagan Mohan Reddy, AIMIM are not its allies. On the other hand, JD-S is now a NDA constituent. BJP's alliance with TDP and Pawan Kalyan's party in Andhra is significant. 


Congress drought in North 

The Congress just had six seats out of as many as 225 spread across 10 states in central India. 

The Congress was decimated in the Hindi heartland both in 2014 and 2019, resulting in the party plunging to its all-time low tally of 44 in 2014 and 52 in the last Lok Sabha elections. 

In 2019, the Congress could win only 1 seat each in Uttar Pradesh (Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli), Bihar (Kishanganj) and Madhya Pradesh (Chhindwara), which together account for 149 seats. 


Besides, the Congress could not open its account in Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It could also win only 2 seats in Chhattisgarh, and 1 in Jharkhand.

The BJP knows it did well in assembly elections in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2023. 







Sheikh of Sandeshkhali: Has he marked the end of Trinamool saga ?



West Bengal, East and Mamata's frustration: The fact that Mamata Banerjee has got injured and there are accusations and counter accusations on various versions on it shows the 'politics of bitterness' will intensify further.  

The BJP has been gaining ground in Bengal, but is dreaming yet again to dislodge the ruling Trinamool Congress.

In 2019 too, the 'Modi wave' and meticulous poll planning helped BJP to pick up 18 seats. It was just 4 behind the TMC’s 22. Now, some predictions are already out in the market that the BJP may win 25. 

This time, the BJP is hoping that the Sandeshkhali episode will help it to leave the TMC red-faced.

The CAA is an added push to win some fringe votes. There are a huge number of 'Hindu refugees' in Bengal from Bangladesh who expect to now become valid Indian citizens.

Of course, the CAA will be an issue in Assam too; but strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma is expected to play his games well.

The voters of Assam are - however - smarter. And in 2021 assembly polls, the BJP was victorious even after the widespread anti-CAA protests of 2019-20.

In 2019, the BJP won 9 of Assam’s 14 Lok Sabha seats, while the Congress won 3 and the AIUDF 1. 

Punjab has 13 seats - one less than in Assam. The Aam Aadmi Party has done a serious blow to the Congress in the 2022 Assembly polls. The Congress has not been able to get its divided house in order still. Of course, the BJP is a weak opponent here. The Akalis too may not do very well. 


The BJP is expected to do well in states such as Odisha and in north east along with its allies despite Manipur black-spot. 









ends 

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